I’m in the US this week, doing a series of client visits. The question everyone keeps asking is “What does China think about the North Korean nuclear tests?” I’m usually verbose, even prolific, about such issues. Mostly, there’s no issue that I can’t muster an opinion and likely some bombast on. But, I find my replies on this one inadequate. I’ve been mumbling that, “of course, the Chinese are opposed” and that it’s less of an issue in China than in the US. Both of those are, of course, suppositions. First, the folks that run China have not yet called to brief me. I expect them to do so any day now, but they are so far derelict. Next, no one really knows what the average person in China (it’s probably not possible to construct a composite average person in China) thinks. By comparison to the US, little of the “man in the street” kind of feedback gets published in China. Likewise, there are far fewer opinion polls. It’s ironic that the emotional acquiescence of the public to government policy is more important to US news media than to the Chinese government.
It has been a front page issue in China. The Shanghai Daily had a front page (below the fold, but still front page) article on the nuclear test nearly every day last week. All of those articles have indicated that the Chinese government disapproves of the test by North Korea. So, it’s safe to assume that they disapprove.
Even so, there is no pervasive atmosphere of worry in China about this test. I don’t suppose anyone believes that North Korea will point missiles towards China and I’m sure that’s true enough. The expatriate community is probably slightly more worried than most other folks, but there doesn’t seem to be excessive worry there either.
It doesn’t seem to be affecting business at all. The economic impact of North Korea on China is as minimal as it is on the rest of the world. I’m sure there are some small pockets of traders with North Korea who are affected, but it’s limited and not material to the overall economy of China.
It’s ironic, really. If North Korea was more significant economically, the military significance of the test would be greater. If North Korea was more significant economically, then the nuclear test would probably be less necessary for them as there would be other reasons for the world to talk to them. If they were more connected to the world, the test would be less necessary for them. So, they use a catastrophic event to gain attention to their catastrophic state of affairs – because they have nothing else that will do so.
This event proves out what Thomas Barnett says in “The Pentagon’s New Map”. In today’s globalized world, disconnectedness means misery and connectedness eventually means a thriving society that is significant to the rest of the world. Let’s all hope and pray that we manage eventually to connect them to the rest of the world. Then, they can spend their energy on positive activities.
Post a Comment